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Macro
ZeroHedge · 2 weeks ago

The Next Fannie Mae Is Made Of GPUs

Patrick Feeley argues that private credit funding AI infrastructure faces structural risk: GPUs depreciate 50%+ annually while buildings last 30 years, hyperscalers lease on short 4-year terms with escape clauses, and asset-backed bonds now price near junk spreads (450–550 bps) despite being marketed as senior infrastructure. The author traces Palantir CEO Alex Karp's logic that this liability is too large for private markets to hold, predicting Washington will eventually backstop the system via loan guarantees or conservatorship—much as it did with mortgage credit post-2008—once compute is formally called "critical infrastructure."

Risk & PsychologyDataLiquidity
Macro
ZeroHedge · 2 weeks ago

People, Power And Politics: Morgan Stanley Maps The Three Ways AI's $1.6 Trillion Capex Plan Can Collapse

Morgan Stanley's analysis identifies three structural risks to the $1.6 trillion AI capex cycle: political constraints (state-level permitting and utility commissions tightening data center rules ahead of midterms), capital-cycle pricing dynamics (memory prices at record levels with risk of 20-30% collapse like 2022 NAND), and a 32 GW US power shortfall through 2028-2029 that could strand expensive inventory. The bank remains constructively biased on a "conditional buildout" but warns the three risks compound each other, with the power gap and regulatory delays potentially triggering a synchronized volume and price collapse—a scenario the market is under-positioned for.

Risk & PsychologyDataEquities
Commodities
ZeroHedge · last month

Oil Hits Session High After DOE Shows Lowest Midwest Gasoline Stocks On Record

DOE reported a 2.25M barrel distillate draw (vs API's 300K build estimate) and 1.68M barrel gasoline draw, with Midwest gasoline at record lows. Crude inventories rose 922K barrels, but the figure was mostly offset by SPR drawdowns of 785K. Refinery utilization fell 1.5ppt and processing has hit three-week lows, while product scarcity—especially diesel—is driving the session rally.

MacroDataLiquidity
Crypto
CoinDesk · last month

Bitcoin rally shows signs of cooling even as a 'bull score' gauge nears its perfect score

Bitcoin rallied to an eight-month high near $87,400 but has pulled back to $83,300 as on-chain metrics flash divergence warnings. CryptoQuant's Bull Score reached 90/100 after BTC cleared its 365-day moving average, yet underlying demand is deteriorating: spot demand contracted ~170K BTC over 30 days, futures growth collapsed 90% in 15 days (164K to 16K BTC), and recent buyers sitting on 33% unrealized gains are taking profits. Exchange deposits of altcoins hit their highest level since October 2025, suggesting sellers are positioning to dump on any bounce.

DataLiquidityMomentum
Macro
ZeroHedge · last month

Key Events This Week: Jobs, Core PCE And ISM

This week brings major US economic releases: core PCE inflation (Wednesday), ISM manufacturing (Thursday), and September payrolls (Friday), alongside global inflation data from Europe and Japan and central bank decisions. Economists expect core PCE at +0.27% MoM (slightly above prior), payrolls around 80k after August's 162k, and ISM manufacturing at 55.0; last week's strong S&P PMI beat (58.4) sent 10Y yields +15.2bps and set a high bar for manufacturing expectations. The RBA (tomorrow) is 93% priced for a 25bp hike, while Eurozone headline CPI is expected at 3.75% YoY and Tokyo CPI showing further firming.

IndicesDataForex
Macro
ZeroHedge · 2 months ago

Terrible 20Y Auction Prices With Huge Tail, Lowest Foreign Demand On Record

The 20-year Treasury auction today posted weak demand across multiple metrics: it priced at 5.420%, the highest yield since the 20Y was introduced in May 2020, and tailed the When Issued by 2.0bps (largest since 2024). Foreign (Indirect) bidding collapsed to 52.5% from 62.9%, marking the lowest on record, while Dealers absorbed 16.9% and Directs hit 30.7% (highest ever). The weakness reveals deteriorating real demand in the primary bond market absent the concessions that made last week's 10Y and 30Y auctions appear successful.

Risk & PsychologyDataLiquidity
Macro
ZeroHedge · 2 months ago

Rate-Hike Odds Soar Despite Lowest Core Consumer Price Inflation Since 2021

August core CPI printed 0.3% MoM (hotter than 0.2% consensus) and 2.4% YoY (lowest since March 2021), driven by communications (wireless carriers' price hikes fueled by memory costs) and energy rebounds. The MoM miss—despite a cooling YoY trend—has pushed September FOMC rate-hike odds above 90%, with markets pricing a 25bps move almost certain. The data leaves Fed Chair Warsh in a credibility bind: having signaled hawkish intent at Jackson Hole, a hold would damage policy credibility despite headline inflation cooling.

Risk & PsychologyDataMomentum
Macro
ZeroHedge · 2 months ago

Futures Rise As Oil Prices Drop Ahead Of CPI Report

Equity index futures gained 0.6% overnight after crude oil pulled back 3% on reports of Iran-GCC diplomatic talks, though geopolitical uncertainty in the Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz remains a persistent risk. Bond yields retreated 1–3bp but remain near 3-year highs (10Y at ~4.96%), with market pricing a 67–72% probability of a Fed hike at next week's FOMC meeting. Today's August CPI print (consensus +0.4% headline, +0.2% core) is the decisive catalyst; a hotter-than-expected reading would likely push 10Y yields above 5% and cement a 25bp hike, while a cooler print could support the case for a hold and trigger a sharp rally in bonds and equities.

IndicesDataCommoditiesEquities
Macro
ZeroHedge · 2 months ago

Key Events This Holiday-Shortened Week: All Eyes On Friday's CPI

This week's economic calendar centers on Friday's August CPI print (headline +0.4% MoM vs +0.07% prior, core +0.2% vs +0.22% prior), which will likely keep headline YoY at 3.4% while core edges down to 2.4%. Thursday's PPI precedes it, with core PCE implications expected to rise to +0.3% MoM from +0.2%. The ECB meets Thursday with a 25bp hike expected, while Asia's trade data (China exports/imports +27-29% YoY) and BoJ's upcoming meeting add multi-region complexity. Treasury buybacks, earnings from Oracle/Adobe, and US political convention round out the week.

IndicesDataForex
Macro
ForexLive · 2 months ago

investingLive Americas market news wrap: Big beat for non-farm payrolls

US August payrolls delivered a significant 162K beat (vs. +56K expected), reversing divergence with Canada's -41.7K miss. The dollar initially spiked ~35 pips post-NFP but retraced sharply as traders reassessed Fed policy—implied hike odds jumped from 49% to 58%, lifting short-dated yields 4 bps despite Fed speakers signaling jobs data wouldn't drive near-term decisions. USD/JPY saw heavy intervention with a 200+ pip swing; USD/CAD peaked at 1.3871 before giving back 35 pips as broad dollar momentum fizzled.

IndicesDataForex
Macro
ZeroHedge · 2 months ago

Labor Shock: US Adds 162K Jobs In August, 4-Sigma Beat And Above Highest Forecast

August payrolls came in at 162K, crushing consensus expectations and the highest Wall Street estimate of 125K—a 4-sigma beat. Prior months were revised up by a combined 55K, and crucially, employed Americans surged 569K in the same month, signaling genuine labor-market strength rather than data noise. Unemployment held flat at 4.1%, wages rose 0.3% MoM and 3.1% YoY in line with expectations, and full-time employment jumped 735K while part-time fell 223K, all pointing to a tightening labor market that's already sent September rate-hike odds higher and weighed on equities and extended yields.

DataMomentum
Macro
ForexLive · 2 months ago

Canada Employment change for August -41,7K vs 15.0K estimate

Canada's August employment report came in sharply below expectations with a 41.7K decline (vs. +15.0K expected), spanning both full-time (-35.9K) and part-time (-5.8K) positions. Wage growth for permanent employees decelerated to 2.0% YoY from 3.0%, and labour-force participation fell to 65.0%. The combination—weaker employment, easing wage pressure, and softer participation—reduces BoC tightening pressure and has sent USDCAD sharply higher, with price now trading above key moving averages (200-day at 1.3836, 100-hour at 1.3850, 200-hour at 1.38587) on improved technical structure.

Risk & PsychologyDataForex
Macro
ZeroHedge · 2 months ago

Futures, Yields Flat Ahead Of August Jobs Report

US equity and bond futures are choppy ahead of the August nonfarm payrolls release, with economists expecting 55k new jobs after July's surprise contraction. Fed Governor Waller's dovish comments Thursday knocked down rate-hike odds to ~51%, shifting focus toward next week's CPI print as the key inflation gauge. Mag 7 stocks are mixed premarket; the yen rallied hard yesterday on BOJ tightening expectations, and crude oil fell while base metals advanced.

IndicesDataForex
Crypto
CoinDesk · 2 months ago

Live updates: Bitcoin ETFs take $731 million, their biggest day since January

Spot bitcoin ETFs posted their largest single-day inflow since January, with $731M in net inflows and all funds rising ~6%. BlackRock's IBIT accounted for over half the inflows, pushing total complex assets to $103B for the first time. This marks a significant shift in institutional flows and suggests renewed retail or macro appetite for bitcoin exposure via regulated vehicles.

DataLiquidityMomentum
Macro
ForexLive · 2 months ago

Preview: August non-farm payrolls by the numbers

Friday's non-farm payrolls print is expected at +56K consensus with range -25K to +121K, following July's -23K miss and a string of weak employment indicators (ADP +38K, Challenger cuts elevated). August has historically printed below estimates 71% of the time with outsized seasonal adjustment noise from school start dates; the article flags a structural job-market slowdown despite 4.1% unemployment. A softer-than-expected report would add pressure to an already-weak dollar (especially USD/JPY after recent intervention and dovish Fed Governor Waller comments) and likely support equities, while a hot print could reverse recent risk gains and shift September rate-hike odds.

IndicesDataForex
Macro
ZeroHedge · 2 months ago

ADP Reports August Saw Weakest Job Growth Since January, Wage Growth Dips

ADP reported only 37K private-sector jobs added in August, missing expectations of 47K and marking the weakest month since January. Goods producers shed jobs at the fastest pace since October, while wage growth for job-switchers decelerated from 7.5% to 7.3%—signaling a softer labor market. This precedes Friday's official payrolls report and deepens the debate over whether the Fed will maintain hawkish policy or ease amid deteriorating employment.

Risk & PsychologyDataMomentum
Macro
ForexLive · 2 months ago

Economic and event calendar in Asia 28 August 2026 - Japan inflation data (Tokyo)

Japan's July Tokyo CPI core inflation beat expectations at 1.9% YoY (vs 1.7% forecast), with the BoJ's preferred core-core measure hitting 2.0%—the fastest pace in four months. Broader "naphtha-flation" driven by weak yen and elevated crude costs is hardening market bets on a September BoJ hike to 1.25%, with pricing rising from ~65% to nearly 80% odds. This sets up August Tokyo data as a leading indicator ahead of nationwide CPI in three weeks, with implications for JPY strength and regional rate expectations.

IndicesDataForex
Macro
ForexLive · 2 months ago

Dallas Fed Trimmed Mean +2.2% versus 1.5% last month

The Dallas Fed's trimmed mean PCE—a measure designed to filter out one-off price moves—jumped to 2.2% year-over-year from 1.5% last month, moving back above the 2% level. This metric strips 55% of weighted PCE components (24% of lowest movers, 31% of highest) to reveal underlying inflation momentum, and is closely watched by Fed officials as a predictor of persistent inflation. The breadth data shows 64.6% of categories rising with 31.5% up at least 5%, suggesting broad-based price pressure rather than isolated spikes—a material shift in the inflation composition that could influence rate-path expectations.

DataMomentum
Macro
ZeroHedge · 3 months ago

WSJ Catches Up, Discovers AI's Off-Balance Sheet Liabilities Are $3 Trillion And Growing $1.2 Trillion Per Quarter

Major tech companies (Google, Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, Oracle, Nvidia, etc.) have committed to ~$3 trillion in AI infrastructure spending hidden off their balance sheets through special-purpose vehicles, uncommenced leases, and long-term purchase agreements—roughly triple their reported capex and growing at $1.2 trillion per quarter. The accounting is legal but masks severe timing mismatches: capex is being committed ahead of revenue and free cash flow to support it, with depreciation expenses still deferred; when those hit, cumulative depreciation could exceed $520 billion over three years and push margins sharply lower unless sales accelerate proportionally. The concentration risk is acute—a handful of large, long-duration contracts and supplier relationships (especially with Nvidia) create cascading counterparty exposure, and if Chinese open-weight models erode token prices and hyperscaler profitability, companies with negative free cash flow will struggle to service obligations they cannot cancel.

Risk & PsychologyDataEquities
Macro
ZeroHedge · 3 months ago

Key Events This Week: FOMC Minutes, PMIs, Industrial Data; WalMart And Home Depot Earnings

Bond markets face pressure this week from the July FOMC minutes (Wednesday), flash August PMIs (Friday), and a potentially expensive 20yr Treasury auction, with the 2s10s curve having steepened 20bps since late July. Core PCE inflation remains sticky at +3.2% YoY despite recent tame CPI/PPI prints, and the Fed's three July dissenters signaled hike readiness if inflation doesn't improve. Key equity earnings from Walmart, Home Depot, and Target will gauge US consumer health, while China's weak domestic demand and flat YTD equity performance contrast sharply with US and European gains.

IndicesDataForexEquities