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ZeroHedge · 18 hours ago

"Really Only One Thing Worries Us A Lot": Here's What Keeps Goldman's Commodities Guru Up At Night

Goldman Sachs' Samantha Dart identified diesel as the most vulnerable oil product heading into winter due to constrained global supplies—Russian refinery outages from Ukrainian strikes, export restrictions, and reduced tanker flows through the Strait of Hormuz. She's recommending a long December/short March diesel calendar spread to exploit the seasonal demand lift against tight supply, and separately shorting European natural gas 2028 contracts on expectations of eventual oversupply. Global refinery runs have hit their lowest seasonal level since COVID, with European gasoil cracks above $70/bbl.

Macro
Commodities
Investing.com — Overview · yesterday

Oil Dips 7% as Trump Calls Off a Planned Attack on Iran

Oil prices dropped sharply on news that Trump called off a planned attack on Iran, reducing geopolitical risk premium that had supported crude. The move signals a de-escalation in Middle East tensions, which had been a key driver of recent oil strength. Traders are now repricing the tail risk of conflict out of the market, likely shifting focus back to supply/demand fundamentals and macro growth concerns.

MacroMomentum
Macro
ForexLive · yesterday

Market moving news for Asian trading on 3 August: Oil slumps on Trump's Iran claims

Oil fell sharply as Trump claimed a Hormuz strait deal and cancellation of Iran strikes, though the claim remains unconfirmed and contradicted by reported Iranian missile attacks. USD/JPY plunged below 156 following official confirmation of Friday's coordinated yen-buying intervention by the US Treasury and Japan's MOF, with both officials pledging further action; Japan's Nikkei and Korea's KOSPI sold off on yen strength and chip concerns respectively. China's July manufacturing PMI missed forecasts at 50.9, signalling slower expansion, while OPEC+ agreed to a modest 188k bpd output hike in September.

ForexCommodities
Commodities
ZeroHedge · 3 days ago

Crude Inventories Have Fallen To "Precariously Low" Levels

Commercial crude inventories fell 7.2 million barrels and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve dropped 3.8 million as U.S. refineries operated at 97% capacity to capitalize on higher fuel prices amid Iran-related supply disruptions. The SPR has now fallen to 307.7 million barrels—its lowest in over 40 years—while the U.S. accounts for 70% of global onshore crude draws over the past four months. Analysts warn that at current depletion rates, inventory buffers are unsustainable and leave the U.S. increasingly vulnerable to future supply shocks.

MacroRisk & PsychologyLiquidity
Commodities
ZeroHedge · 4 days ago

Wheat Prices March Higher As Intensifying Black Sea Fighting Fuels Food Security Fears

Wheat futures rose as much as 3.9% on Thursday following intensified Russian strikes on Ukrainian Black Sea ports, with three cargo ships hit in recent days. The UN has flagged the escalation as a serious risk to global food security, warning that further supply disruptions could drive up freight, insurance, and food costs—particularly for import-dependent developing nations. The Bloomberg Agriculture Spot Index has already climbed to a three-year high, signaling that geopolitical risk is pricing into the broader agricultural complex.

MacroMomentum
Macro
CNBC — Markets · 4 days ago

China's factory activity unexpectedly contracts in July on demand slump, typhoons

China's official manufacturing PMI fell unexpectedly to 49.2 in July from 50.3 in June, breaking a four-month expansion streak and marking the weakest reading since February. The contraction was driven by a sharp collapse in new orders (48.5, the lowest in 38 months) and weakening exports as the front-loading surge ahead of U.S. tariffs unwound, compounded by typhoon disruptions. The broad weakness across construction, services, and composite indices signals domestic demand stress, pressuring Beijing to accelerate fiscal stimulus; however, firms' forward expectations remain resilient, suggesting they anticipate policy support to stabilize growth in H2.

IndicesCommoditiesMomentum