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Futures

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Commodities
ZeroHedge · 2 weeks ago

CME Plans World's First Tungsten Futures As Booming Missile Demand May Spark Severe 2030 Shortage

CME Group announced the launch of the first tungsten futures contract, settling against Fastmarkets' Western APT benchmark, with trading expected to begin in early Q1 2027. The move addresses a market currently reliant on spot pricing and reflects mounting supply constraints driven by Chinese export restrictions, resource nationalism, and rising Western military demand—with analysts projecting a structural deficit by 2030. The contract provides hedging and forward-price discovery for producers like Almonty Industries, miners, and manufacturers seeking visibility into a market where spot tungsten prices have retreated from $3,000/ton highs but remain elevated versus historical levels.

MacroFutures
Macro
ZeroHedge · last month

Futures Rise As 10Y Yields Pull Back From 24 Year High

U.S. equity futures opened Q4 higher despite a significant bond selloff, with 10-year Treasury yields reaching 5.34%—the highest since 2002—before retracing slightly to 5.27%. The S&P 500 futures rose 0.4% and Nasdaq 100 gained 0.7%, driven by semiconductor and mega-cap tech strength following Micron's upbeat earnings and guidance on AI-driven memory demand. The disconnect reflects a market rotation into AI-beneficiary stocks while broader sectors and small caps (Russell 2000) struggle under elevated rates; JPMorgan's strategists flag that bonds appear oversold but lack a clear support level, with BNP Paribas identifying 5.5% on the 10Y as a critical pressure point for equity valuations. Oil climbed 2%+ amid U.S.-Iran negotiation stalls and geopolitical risk, while the dollar set a 52-week high.

FuturesIndicesForexCommodities
Commodities
ZeroHedge · last month

NatGas Spikes As Major West Virginia Pipeline Declares Force Majeure

TC Energy's Columbia Gas Transmission issued a force majeure notice on the Mountaineer XPress pipeline in West Virginia due to an unexpected mechanical issue, cutting approximately 1.8 Bcf/d of firm natural gas service effective Sept. 25. The outage affects major supply routes from Appalachian (Marcellus/Utica) production to Northeast, Midwest, and Southeast markets, as well as Gulf Coast export terminals. October NatGas futures rallied 4.5% (13.6 cents) to $3.159/MMBtu on the news, with prices up over 12% since early Wednesday, reflecting supply-route tightness despite abundant production at the wellhead.

MacroFuturesLiquidity
Macro
Dow Jones — Markets · 2 months ago

Fed Issues First Rate Hike Since 2023

The Federal Reserve has initiated its first rate hike cycle since 2023, driving Treasury yields higher across the curve. This marks a policy shift and will likely ripple through equity, FX, and fixed-income positioning as traders reassess rate expectations and duration risk. The move also reflects changing macro conditions, though the article excerpt doesn't specify the economic catalyst or the size of the hike.

FuturesIndicesForex
Macro
ForexLive · 2 months ago

investingLive Americas market news wrap: Fed hikes rates for the first time in three years

The Fed delivered a unanimous rate hike, its first in three years, with Fed Chair Warsh signaling readiness for further tightening in October. Strong economic data (retail sales +1.2%, Q3 GDP tracking 5.1%, elevated inventories) and persistent inflation risks drove the dot plot to project another 2026 hike, pushing October rate odds to 58%. Markets sold off moderately—S&P 500 down 1%, USD and short-dated yields up, gold down $38—with the euro falling 80 pips and yen extending post-intervention highs.

FuturesIndicesForex
Macro
MarketWatch — Bulletins · 2 months ago

Fed hikes rates by quarter-point, sees only one more move higher through 2027

The Federal Reserve delivered a 25-basis-point rate increase and substantially reduced its forward guidance, projecting just one more rate hike through 2027 versus prior expectations of multiple moves. This hawkish pause signals the Fed believes inflation progress warrants a slower tightening pace, which could shift market expectations for 2025–2027 positioning across equities, bonds, and FX.

FuturesIndicesForex
Macro
ZeroHedge · 2 months ago

Fed Hikes Rates For First Time Since July 2023, Signals 1 More Hike In 2026

The Federal Reserve unanimously hiked rates by 25 basis points, marking the first increase since July 2023, with the dots projection suggesting one additional hike in 2026. Despite a downtrend in CPI over the past three months, the Fed upgraded GDP and inflation outlooks while lowering unemployment forecasts, signaling a hawkish stance on stagflation risks. Market pricing had been heavily skewed toward this hike (95% odds), and the decision now shifts focus to whether this is truly a "one-and-done" move or the start of a longer tightening cycle, with two-year yields at their highest since 2024 and the 10-year now through 5%.

FuturesIndicesForex
Macro
Federal Reserve — Press · 2 months ago

Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement

The FOMC voted unanimously to raise the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75–4% in September 2026, citing solid economic expansion, resilient domestic spending, strong productivity growth, and elevated inflation. The Committee maintained its policy of ample banking system reserves and signaled that today's action supports a 'timelier return' to the 2% inflation target, indicating rate momentum remains hawkish despite a stable labor market and unchanged unemployment.

FuturesIndicesForex
Macro
ZeroHedge · 2 months ago

Futures Rise, Oil And Yields Dip Ahead Of First Fed Hike In Three Years

Markets are pricing a 94% probability of a 25bp Fed rate hike today, the first since July 2023, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures modestly higher after a three-day selloff driven by surging oil and stagflation fears. Treasury yields have pulled back 1-3bp this morning and crude oil is down ~0.8%, providing some relief, though the critical variable for traders will be the dot plot and Chair Warsh's messaging—a hawkish tone or additional rate hikes projected could keep yields elevated and pressure equities further. Retail sales, housing data, and TIC flows are also on the agenda, but the Fed's forward guidance will dominate price action through the close.

Risk & PsychologyFuturesIndicesForex
Crypto
CoinDesk · 2 months ago

Crypto longs worth $570 million wiped out as Clarity Act fails

The Senate's failure to pass the Clarity Act (49–50 vote) triggered roughly $571 million in bullish crypto futures liquidations over 24 hours—the largest since August 22. Bitcoin and ether longs each lost ~$190 million as markets reversed a rally built on legislative hopes; BTC remains near $75,700 within its recent range. Regulatory momentum has shifted to the executive branch and independent agencies (CFTC/SEC), leaving open questions about future crypto policy direction.

FuturesLiquidityMomentum
Macro
ZeroHedge · 2 months ago

Futures Drop As Yields, Oil Prices Keep Rising

US equity futures are lower in premarket trading as bond yields surge to 19-year highs (10Y at 5.04%), driven by rising oil prices (+2%), geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and debate over AI slowdown. The Nasdaq and Russell 2000 are lagging the S&P 500, with Mag7 tech stocks mostly lower except Nvidia; this selective weakness suggests rotation out of high-beta growth ahead of Wednesday's Fed meeting, where markets now price a >90% chance of a rate hike. The bear steepening yield curve, stronger dollar, and elevated energy costs are creating a risk-off environment, with hedging demand rising visibly (VIX trades surge) as investors position defensively into macro events.

Risk & PsychologyFuturesIndicesCommodities
Commodities
ZeroHedge · 2 months ago

US Data Centers To Burn More Natural Gas Than Most Nations

BloombergNEF forecasts US data center natural gas consumption will grow 15 billion cubic feet per day through 2035—more than doubling its December projection—driven by AI infrastructure buildout and on-site power generation economics. Combined with LNG export demand (21B cubic feet/day growth), total power-sector gas consumption will reach 54B cubic feet/day by 2035, creating a potential 11B cubic feet/day supply gap that could drive prices significantly higher if domestic producers cannot meet demand. This structural shift positions natural gas as a key long-duration commodity play tied to sustained AI capex and reshapes the decade-long trend of cheap Henry Hub pricing.

MacroFutures
Macro
MarketWatch — Top Stories · 2 months ago

10-year Treasury yield briefly tops 5%, hitting its highest level since 2007 as bond-market selloff deepens

The 10-year Treasury yield briefly broke above 5% on Monday, marking its highest level since 2007, as a broad bond-market selloff accelerated. The move coincided with rising oil prices and growing uncertainty around artificial intelligence valuations, forcing investors to reassess risk positioning. This yield level has structural implications for equity valuations, refinancing costs, and Fed policy expectations—watch for follow-through above 5% as a potential inflection point for equities and duration-sensitive sectors.

FuturesIndicesCommodities
Macro
Investing.com — Overview · 2 months ago

Hot CPI Report Puts a Fed Rate Hike Squarely Back on the Table

A stronger-than-expected CPI reading has shifted market expectations back toward the possibility of a Fed rate hike, reversing recent momentum in easing bets. This repricing affects risk assets across equities, bonds, and currencies, with traders reassessing positioning ahead of the next FOMC decision. The data undercuts the dovish narrative that has dominated since late 2024.

FuturesIndicesForex
Macro
MarketWatch — Bulletins · 2 months ago

The August CPI report is moments away. Find live updates here.

The August Consumer Price Index release is about to be published and will be closely watched by markets for inflation trends that could influence Fed policy direction. CPI data typically drives broad equity and futures volatility, particularly affecting rate expectations and sector rotation. Traders will be monitoring both headline and core readings against expectations to assess the trajectory of monetary policy through year-end.

FuturesIndicesMomentum
Macro
CNBC — Markets · 2 months ago

Friday's CPI inflation report is even more important than usual. Here's what to expect

The BLS will release August CPI data Friday morning, expected to show 0.4% monthly headline inflation and 3.4% annual, with core inflation at 0.2% monthly and 2.4% annually. This report, combined with Thursday's PPI, will heavily influence the FOMC's September rate decision; traders currently price in >73% odds of a quarter-point hike, but volatility in expectations means an upside surprise in PCE-relevant CPI components could significantly shift the probability toward policy tightening.

Risk & PsychologyFuturesIndices
Macro
ZeroHedge · 2 months ago

Futures Slide As Yields, Oil Spike Ahead Of PPI

US stock index futures extended losses for a third consecutive day as Treasury yields climbed to fresh 3-year highs (10Y at 4.88%), driven by surging oil prices (WTI +1.7%, Brent above $103) amid escalating US-Iran tensions and Trump's proposed $5k fiscal spending pledge. August PPI, due at 8:30 a.m., is critical market-moving data ahead of the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, with current pricing at 61% odds of a September hike. Tech underperformance and broad equity weakness reflect the confluence of higher energy costs, elevated real yields, and expectations for tighter monetary policy globally.

FuturesIndicesForexCommodities
Macro
ZeroHedge · 2 months ago

Futures Slide As Brent Tops $100, 10Y Yields Rise Above 4.81% Ahead Of Expanded Treasury Buyback

Equity futures declined on Wednesday as oil surged past $100/barrel (first time since late July) following US strikes on Iranian tankers and Tehran's retaliatory missile fire, adding inflationary pressure and lifting 10Y Treasury yields to 4.81%. The geopolitical flare-up and energy spike dominated price action across risk assets, even as Meta surged 5% on AI news; meanwhile, the Treasury is set to announce the size of its expanded long-end buyback operation later today, adding uncertainty to fixed income. Front-end yields rose 2–3bps as traders price in a higher probability of a Fed rate hike next week amid persistent inflation concerns.

FuturesIndicesForexCommodities
Commodities
ZeroHedge · 2 months ago

Iran To Draw New "Restricted Zone" In Hormuz As Saudi Aramco Facility Hit Again, Oil Climbs

Iran's security council announced plans for a new restricted shipping zone in the Strait of Hormuz and Persian Gulf, with maps to be signed within days, following US airstrikes on Iranian tankers and threats against US energy assets. Saudi Aramco's Jizan facility was hit (likely by Houthi drones), marking a second major attack in a month, while Brent crude rallied above $97—its highest since late July—as escalating military tensions threaten critical Gulf energy chokepoints and supply infrastructure.

MacroFutures