Counting Ticks
Category archive

Futures

Index, commodity and financial futures

13 stories loaded

Macro
ZeroHedge · last week

Futures Slide As Yields, Oil Spike Ahead Of PPI

US stock index futures extended losses for a third consecutive day as Treasury yields climbed to fresh 3-year highs (10Y at 4.88%), driven by surging oil prices (WTI +1.7%, Brent above $103) amid escalating US-Iran tensions and Trump's proposed $5k fiscal spending pledge. August PPI, due at 8:30 a.m., is critical market-moving data ahead of the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, with current pricing at 61% odds of a September hike. Tech underperformance and broad equity weakness reflect the confluence of higher energy costs, elevated real yields, and expectations for tighter monetary policy globally.

FuturesIndicesForexCommodities
Macro
ZeroHedge · last week

Futures Slide As Brent Tops $100, 10Y Yields Rise Above 4.81% Ahead Of Expanded Treasury Buyback

Equity futures declined on Wednesday as oil surged past $100/barrel (first time since late July) following US strikes on Iranian tankers and Tehran's retaliatory missile fire, adding inflationary pressure and lifting 10Y Treasury yields to 4.81%. The geopolitical flare-up and energy spike dominated price action across risk assets, even as Meta surged 5% on AI news; meanwhile, the Treasury is set to announce the size of its expanded long-end buyback operation later today, adding uncertainty to fixed income. Front-end yields rose 2–3bps as traders price in a higher probability of a Fed rate hike next week amid persistent inflation concerns.

FuturesIndicesForexCommodities
Commodities
ZeroHedge · 2 weeks ago

Iran To Draw New "Restricted Zone" In Hormuz As Saudi Aramco Facility Hit Again, Oil Climbs

Iran's security council announced plans for a new restricted shipping zone in the Strait of Hormuz and Persian Gulf, with maps to be signed within days, following US airstrikes on Iranian tankers and threats against US energy assets. Saudi Aramco's Jizan facility was hit (likely by Houthi drones), marking a second major attack in a month, while Brent crude rallied above $97—its highest since late July—as escalating military tensions threaten critical Gulf energy chokepoints and supply infrastructure.

MacroFutures
Macro
ZeroHedge · 3 weeks ago

Futures Flat, Bonds Drop Ahead Of Warsh Jackson Hole Speech

US stock futures are essentially flat ahead of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's 10am ET Jackson Hole speech, with investors seeking clarity on his inflation strategy and policy outlook. Bond yields have risen 1-2bps overnight, and Treasury curve positioning remains uncertain as markets price in only a 35% chance of a September rate hike. The speech is critical because Warsh has been vague on policy direction and hasn't provided forward guidance; any shift in tone on inflation, monetary transmission, or the Fed's recent actions could repriced rate expectations and move duration-sensitive assets, particularly in FX, bonds, and gold rather than equities.

FuturesIndicesForex
Crypto
CoinDesk · 4 weeks ago

A bitcoin short squeeze for the ages as futures open interest collapses

Bitcoin's recent rally has been accompanied by a sharp decline in futures open interest and falling funding rates, indicators that suggest weak hands and overleveraged shorts are being forced out rather than retail chasing highs. The structural health of the move—lower open interest + lower funding rates—contrasts with typical bubble rallies, where both metrics tend to expand as leverage builds. This setup historically precedes more durable price moves.

FuturesLiquidityMomentum
Macro
ZeroHedge · last month

Futures Slide As Treasury Yields Surge, Erasing Bessent Intervention, Driven By Oil Spike

Treasury Secretary Bessent's surprise buyback announcement yesterday failed to hold gains; 10Y yields climbed back to 4.69%, erasing the entire post-intervention rally as Brent crude spiked above $94/bbl following Trump's "Economic D-Day" threat against Iran. S&P and Nasdaq futures are down 0.2–0.3%, with systematic funds posting their worst single-day loss since 2023, while geopolitical risk premium in energy and structural concerns about fiscal deficits overwhelm the Treasury's modest intervention.

FuturesIndicesForexCommodities
Macro
ZeroHedge · last month

"Doom Loop" Engaged: US Debt Hits $40 Trillion As Treasury Enters The Endgame

US total public debt crossed $40 trillion for the first time, having added $1 trillion in just over three months and one-third of total debt in under five years. Treasury Secretary Bessent announced a doubling of liquidity-support buyback operations on longer-dated securities (10-30Y) to combat multi-year yield highs, temporarily sending yields lower. The core risk is a potential "doom loop": rising Treasury yields increase borrowing costs, which inflate the deficit further and push yields higher again—a cycle exacerbated by record semi-annual coupon payments ($85B) and interest costs now representing the third-largest budget item at $1.37T YTD (+20% YoY), on track to exceed Social Security spending by 2026.

Risk & PsychologyFuturesForex
Macro
ZeroHedge · last month

"Sea Of Red": Futures Slide As Market Wakes Up To Soaring Bond Yields And Diesel Prices

US equity futures opened sharply lower as long-dated bond yields surged to multi-decade highs alongside elevated oil prices and record diesel crack spreads, driven by deteriorating US-Iran negotiations and persistent geopolitical risk. The 30-year Treasury yield reached 5.33% (highest since 2007), reflecting combined pressure from energy costs, fiscal concerns, elevated corporate issuance, and JPY dynamics. Tech and growth stocks led declines while defensive and energy sectors outperformed, signaling a risk-off rotation as investors repriced the sustainability of AI-driven gains against stagflationary headwinds.

FuturesIndicesForexCommodities
Crypto
CoinDesk · last month

The bitcoin futures market looks like a crowded club with a tiny exit – and it could cause pain

Bitcoin futures markets show a dangerous structural imbalance: $48 billion in open interest against only $25 billion in daily trading volume—the widest gap since September. This liquidity mismatch mirrors a crowded venue with a tiny exit; if forced liquidations or margin calls trigger mass position closures, there won't be enough volume to absorb the selling, potentially amplifying downside moves. The risk is compounded by thinning bids at support levels and spot-volume weakness, leaving less cushion if BTC retests the $58k June lows.

Risk & PsychologyFuturesLiquidity
Crypto
CoinDesk · last month

A rare CME shift: Hedge funds abandon structural shorts to bet on a bitcoin rally

Hedge funds on CME have shifted from structural short positioning to net long on Bitcoin futures—a rare move after years of carry-trade dominance. The shift reflects the unwinding of basis trades: with three-month futures basis yielding ~3%, below the 3.8% on two-year Treasuries, the risk-adjusted return no longer justifies holding shorts against spot long positions. Bitcoin's recovery from $58K to $65K supports this pivot, and the net-long positioning crossing suggests institutional conviction in upside rather than market-neutral hedging.

MacroFuturesLiquidity
Macro
Investing.com — Stock Market · last month

Nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings due Friday

The U.S. employment report (nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings) is scheduled for Friday release. This is one of the most market-moving macro data points each month, directly affecting Fed rate expectations, bond yields, and equity/FX positioning. Traders will be watching headline payroll growth, the jobless rate trend, and wage growth for signals on labor-market momentum and inflation persistence.

FuturesIndicesForex
Macro
ZeroHedge · 2 months ago

Key Events This Week: Jobs, ISMs, Fed Speakers And More Earnings On Deck

This week is data-heavy across macro calendars: the US will release JOLTS, ADP employment, and Friday's crucial July jobs report (consensus +85k nonfarm, +83k private), with risks skewed toward a 4.3% unemployment rate. Fed speakers (Cook, Schmid, Musalem, Barkin) will be closely monitored for rate-path signals following three dissents favoring a hike last week. Globally, investors will watch Swiss/Swedish inflation, German activity data, Chinese PMI and trade figures, and Japanese wage momentum. Concurrent heavy earnings from Palantir, AMD, Disney, Uber, and others.

FuturesIndicesData
Macro
Federal Reserve — Press · 2 months ago

Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement

The FOMC kept rates unchanged at 3.5-3.75% on July 29, 2026, citing solid economic expansion but elevated inflation relative to the 2% target. Three voting members (Hammack, Kashkari, Logan) dissented in favor of a 25bp hike, signaling hawkish pressure within the Committee despite the hold. The statement acknowledges supply-driven price pressures, especially in energy, and geopolitical uncertainty, but commits to delivering price stability—setting up potential rate action if inflation data doesn't improve.

Risk & PsychologyFuturesIndices