The week ahead will be dominated by the US labor market, with the JOLTS report tomorrow, the ADP employment survey on Wednesday, and building up to Friday’s July employment report. Beyond the US, investors will be watching Swiss inflation today, Swedish inflation on Thursday, German activity data throughout the week (culminating in trade and industrial production figures on Friday), Chinese PMI releases on Wednesday ahead of trade data on Friday, and Japanese wage data and BoJ communications on Wednesday before household spending figures on Friday. Meanwhile, earnings season remains in full swing.
Looking at the US and then the rest of the world in more detail, attention will center on whether incoming data reinforce the view that the US labor market remains resilient. DB's economists expect Friday’s July payrolls report to show employment growth of +65k, modestly above June’s +57k reading, while private payrolls are also expected to rise by +65k after +49k previously. The unemployment rate is forecast to remain at 4.
2%, although risks are skewed towards a rounding up to 4.3% if labor force participation rebounds after last month’s sharp decline. Average hourly earnings are expected to increase by +0.
3% month-on-month, unchanged from June, while average hours worked are forecast to hold at 34.3 hours. If realized, those outcomes would leave economists’ payroll proxy for nominal income growth unchanged at 4.
4% year-on-year.Before Friday’s report, several labor market indicators will help shape expectations. The JOLTS report (tomorrow) and the ADP employment survey (Wednesday) will be closely watched, with economists expecting ADP employment growth of +65k after +98k previously.
Activity indicators will also feature prominently. The ISM manufacturing index (today) is expected to improve to 53.9 from 53.
3, while the ISM services index (Wednesday) is forecast at 54.5, little changed from June’s 54.0.
Productivity data (Thursday) should provide another read on underlying economic momentum, with our economists forecasting Q2 nonfarm productivity growth of +3.0% and unit labour costs rising by +0.5%.
The policy backdrop remains important. The Fed left rates unchanged last week, but three officials dissented in favor of a hike, highlighting continuing concerns about inflation. Investors will therefore pay close attention to remarks from Governor Cook (Wednesday), as well as speeches from Schmid (Tuesday), Musalem (Thursday) and Barkin (Friday), for any indication of how officials are interpreting the latest data.
Our economists continue to expect two further 25bp rate increases this year, in September and December.Outside the US, Europe’s focus will be split between inflation and activity data. Switzerland releases July CPI today, while Sweden follows with its July inflation report on Thursday.
Germany will publish a series of key June indicators throughout the week, including retail sales (today), factory orders (Thursday), and trade and industrial production figures (Friday). Elsewhere, France releases Q2 wage data on Thursday, while euro area producer prices (Wednesday) and retail sales (Thursday) are also upcoming.In Asia, after China’s private PMI surveys began with manufacturing data today, this continues with services on Wednesday, before attention turns to July trade figures and foreign reserves on Friday.
In Japan, investors will monitor labour cash earnings (Wednesday) and household spending (Friday) for evidence on domestic demand and wage momentum. The Bank of Japan will also publish the minutes of its June meeting on Wednesday.Corporate earnings remain another major theme.
In the US, reports are due from Palantir (today), SpaceX, AMD, Caterpillar, McDonald’s and Toyota (tomorrow), before attention shifts to Eli Lilly, Walt Disney and Uber (Wednesday). Source: Earnings WhispersEuropean highlights include Novo Nordisk and Siemens Energy (Wednesday), followed by Siemens and Rheinmetall (Thursday), while Japan’s reporting calendar includes SoftBank and Nintendo (Thursday).Courtesy of DB, here is a day-by-day calendar of eventsMonday August 3Data: US July ISM index, total vehicle sales, June construction spending, Germany June retail sales, Italy July new car registrations, budget balance, Switzerland July CPI, China July RatingDog manufacturing PMIEarnings: Palantir, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Vertex, MarriottTuesday August 4Data: US June trade balance, factory orders, JOLTS report, Japan July monetary base, France June budget balance YTD, Italy June retail sales, Canada June international merchandise trade, July manufacturing PMIEarnings: SpaceX, AMD, Caterpillar, HSBC, Merck & Co, Toyota, Arista Networks, Amgen, McDonald's, Gilead Sciences, Booking, Pfizer, BP, Spotify, Cummins, Marathon Petroleum, Emerson Electric, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, TransDigm, Apollo, Energy Transfer, BayerWednesday August 5Data: US July ADP report, ISM services, UK July new car registrations, official reserves changes, Japan June labor cash earnings, France June industrial production, Italy July services PMI, Eurozone June PPI, China July RatingDog services PMI, New Zealand Q2 labour force surveyCentral banks: BoJ minutes of the June meeting, Fed’s Cook speaksEarnings: Eli Lilly, Novo Nordisk, Sandisk, Walt Disney, Shopify, Siemens Energy, Uber, AppLovin, CVS Health, McKesson, Infineon, MercadoLibre, Phillips 66, Glencore, DoorDash, Honeywell Aerospace, Occidental Petroleum, Medline, eBay, Block, Axon, Sandoz, Kraft Heinz, GLOBALFOUNDRIES, Fresenius, Global Payments, Vonovia, FigmaThursday August 6Data: US Q2 nonfarm productivity, unit labor costs, June wholesale trade sales, initial jobless claims, UK July construction PMI, Germany June factory orders, July construction PMI, France Q2 wages, Italy June industrial production, Eurozone June retail sales, Canada July services PMI, Sweden July CPICentral banks: ECB’s economic bulletin, Fed’s Musalem speaksEarnings: Siemens, SoftBank, DBS, Deutsche Telekom, ConocoPhillips, Zurich Insurance Group, Howmet Aerospace, Constellation Energy, Cloudflare, Datadog, Airbnb, Generali, Merck KGaA, Warner Bros Discovery, Nintendo, Rheinmetall, Cheniere Energy, Swiss Re, Diageo, CommerzbankFriday August 7Data: US July jobs report, NY Fed 1-yr inflation expectations, June consumer credit, Japan June household spending, leading index, coincident index, Germany June trade balance, industrial production, France June current account balance, trade balance, Canada July labour force survey, China July foreign reserves, trade balanceCentral banks: Fed’s Barkin speaksEarnings: Allianz, Munich Re, Vistra, Take-Two Interactive Software, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena* * * Finally, looking at just the US, Goldman notes that the key economic data release this week is the employment report on Friday.
There are several speaking engagements with Fed officials this week, including events with Governors Cook and Bowman.Monday, August 3 09:45 AM S&P Global US manufacturing PMI, July final (consensus 53.8, last 53.
8)10:00 AM ISM manufacturing index, July (GS 54.3, consensus 53.9, last 53.
3):We estimate that the ISM manufacturing index increased 1.0pt to 54.3 in July, reflecting a sharp improvement in regional manufacturing surveys—our manufacturing survey tracker increased by 1.
7pt to 56.7 in July—that is partly offset by a headwind from residual seasonality.10:00 AM Construction spending, June (GS +0.
5%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.1%)05:00 PM Lightweight motor vehicle sales, July (GS 16.
8mn, consensus 16.3mn, last 16.5mn)Tuesday, August 4 08:30 AM Trade balance, June (GS -$73.
0bn, consensus -$73.0bn, last -$77.6bn)10:00 AM Factory orders, June (GS +0.
2%, consensus +0.2%, last -1.3%)10:00 AM JOLTS job openings, June (GS 7,300k, consensus 7,501k, last 7,594k): We estimate that JOLTS job openings declined to 7.
3mn in June based on the signal from online measures of job postings from Indeed and LinkUp.08:15 PM Kansas City Fed President Schmid (FOMC non-voter)