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Macro
ForexLive · 18 hours ago

US ISM Manufacturing PMI for July 55.6 versus 54.0 estimate

July ISM Manufacturing PMI expanded to 55.6 from 53.3, the strongest in over four years and above the 54.0 consensus, driven by broad-based gains in production (58.5), new orders (56.7), and employment (52.8 vs. 49.7). The report signals manufacturing momentum is accelerating with rising backlogs and low customer inventories suggesting near-term demand strength, though elevated prices paid (71.1) and supply-chain bottlenecks signal persistent inflationary pressure and potential hawkish implications for Fed policy.

IndicesMomentumData
Macro
ZeroHedge · 18 hours ago

Key Events This Week: Jobs, ISMs, Fed Speakers And More Earnings On Deck

This week is data-heavy across macro calendars: the US will release JOLTS, ADP employment, and Friday's crucial July jobs report (consensus +85k nonfarm, +83k private), with risks skewed toward a 4.3% unemployment rate. Fed speakers (Cook, Schmid, Musalem, Barkin) will be closely monitored for rate-path signals following three dissents favoring a hike last week. Globally, investors will watch Swiss/Swedish inflation, German activity data, Chinese PMI and trade figures, and Japanese wage momentum. Concurrent heavy earnings from Palantir, AMD, Disney, Uber, and others.

FuturesIndicesData
Equities
Investing.com — Stock Market · 3 days ago

Apple set to lose nearly $500 billion in value after weak forecast

Apple issued a disappointing forward guidance that triggered a significant selloff, erasing approximately $500 billion in market capitalization. The move reflects either a material miss on revenue/margin expectations or weak demand signals that recalibrate investor sentiment on the mega-cap tech name. This is a key liquidity event for index futures (Nasdaq exposure) and a potential inflection point for growth/tech rotation.

IndicesMomentumMacro
Indices
ZeroHedge · 4 days ago

Futures Rise After Record Rip In Kospi; Bond Bounce Fades As Oil Jumps, BoJ On Hold

US tech futures extend gains on strong earnings: Amazon's AWS revenue jumped 37% YoY (vs. 31.3% consensus), driving AMZN +12% premarket, while Apple fell 7% on weaker sales guidance citing supply shortages. The Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 1.2% with S&P 500 futures +0.5% as 86% of reported S&P 500 companies beat estimates—the highest 5-year pace. South Korea's Kospi surged a record 18% overnight on SK Hynix strength. Separately, the BoJ held rates at 1% as expected; the yen spiked on suspected coordinated intervention (JPY/USD briefly touched 158.34) before paring back. Oil prices recovered after Iran tanker blockade headlines; bond gains faded. China's manufacturing PMI unexpectedly fell into contraction.

EquitiesMacroMomentum
Macro
ForexLive · 4 days ago

Euro area inflation nudges up in July, keeps the pressure on the ECB

Eurozone inflation surprised to the upside in July, with both headline CPI (+2.9%) and core CPI (+2.5%) beating expectations. The concern isn't energy alone—services inflation accelerated to 3.3% and monthly rates show broad-based pressure. Market pricing has shifted: September rate-hike odds moved from 64% to 66%, and traders are now pricing ~38 bps of total hikes by year-end with another ~52 bps before mid-2027. This data keeps the ECB under pressure despite hopes for a summer pause.

ForexIndicesMomentum
Macro
CNBC — Markets · 4 days ago

China's factory activity unexpectedly contracts in July on demand slump, typhoons

China's official manufacturing PMI fell unexpectedly to 49.2 in July from 50.3 in June, breaking a four-month expansion streak and marking the weakest reading since February. The contraction was driven by a sharp collapse in new orders (48.5, the lowest in 38 months) and weakening exports as the front-loading surge ahead of U.S. tariffs unwound, compounded by typhoon disruptions. The broad weakness across construction, services, and composite indices signals domestic demand stress, pressuring Beijing to accelerate fiscal stimulus; however, firms' forward expectations remain resilient, suggesting they anticipate policy support to stabilize growth in H2.

IndicesCommoditiesMomentum
Macro
ForexLive · 4 days ago

investingLive Americas FX news wrap 30 Jul USDJPY moves sharply lower on speculation of intervention.

Thursday's US economic data painted a mixed picture: Q2 GDP grew just 1.5% versus 2.1% expected, but consumer spending accelerated to 3.2% and the Dallas Fed Trimmed Mean PCE collapsed to 1.4%—the lowest since 2020—signaling faster disinflation beneath headline numbers. Initial jobless claims beat at 197K. The USDJPY collapsed from 163.30 to 158.00 on suspected Japanese intervention, anchoring to the 200-day MA at 157.89, while major indices rallied hard (+1.66% S&P, +3.36% Nasdaq 100) and Treasury yields rose 5–7 bps across the curve, reflecting persistent long-end inflation concerns despite the dovish data.

ForexIndicesRisk & Psychology
Macro
CNBC — Markets · 5 days ago

U.S. economy slowed to 1.5% growth rate in Q2; June core inflation at 3.3%

Q2 GDP disappointed at 1.5% vs. 1.8% forecast, but weakness came primarily from inventory drawdowns and lower federal spending—underlying consumer demand remained solid with personal spending up 2.1% and final sales to domestic purchasers up 3.9%. Core PCE inflation held at 3.3% (down from 3.4% quarterly), still 1.3 points above the Fed's 2% target, which intensifies policy uncertainty heading into a period when the Fed may be reluctant to cut rates aggressively despite a softer growth picture.

IndicesForexRisk & Psychology
Macro
ForexLive · 5 days ago

US June PCE inflation 3.7% vs 3.7%% expected. Core 3.3% vs 3.3% expected

June PCE data came in exactly in line with consensus—headline 3.7% YoY (down from 4.1%) and core 3.3% YoY (down from 3.4%)—but the month-over-month prints reveal a sharper disinflationary pulse: core MoM at 0.1% vs 0.2% expected, and services ex-energy at 0.1% vs 0.5% prior. The Fed remains focused on the 2% target, which the article suggests could take 6–8 months to approach if inflation stays tame, but with energy prices as the wild card—any creep in oil could derail the disinflation trajectory and complicate rate-cut timing.

IndicesForexRisk & Psychology
Macro
ForexLive · 5 days ago

US Q2 advance GDP +1.5% vs +2.1% expected

The advance Q2 GDP report showed real growth of 1.5%, significantly below the 2.1% forecast, marking a deceleration from Q1's 2.1%. Consumer spending surged 3.2% (vs 0.1% prior) and private final sales jumped to 3.9%, but government spending fell and exports decelerated, creating the shortfall. The inflation picture was mixed: core PCE cooled modestly to 3.4% Q/Q (vs 3.5% prior), but headline PCE accelerated to 5.1% (vs 4.6% prior) and the GDP deflator jumped to 6.3% (vs 3.9% expected), signaling persistent price pressures despite the growth miss.

IndicesMomentumRisk & Psychology
Macro
Federal Reserve — Press · 6 days ago

Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement

The FOMC kept rates unchanged at 3.5-3.75% on July 29, 2026, citing solid economic expansion but elevated inflation relative to the 2% target. Three voting members (Hammack, Kashkari, Logan) dissented in favor of a 25bp hike, signaling hawkish pressure within the Committee despite the hold. The statement acknowledges supply-driven price pressures, especially in energy, and geopolitical uncertainty, but commits to delivering price stability—setting up potential rate action if inflation data doesn't improve.

IndicesFuturesRisk & Psychology