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ZeroHedge · 5 days ago

Futures Slide As Tech Tumbles On Fears Of AI Slowdown, Oil Jumps

US equity futures opened sharply lower after AI industry executives—including Anthropic's Dario Amodei and OpenAI's Sam Altman—called for a measured pace in advanced model development over the weekend, sparking rotation out of chipmakers (semis -4.7% premarket) and AI-exposed Mag 7 names (NVDA -3.2%, TSLA -2.1%, META -1.2%). Simultaneously, Brent crude jumped above $108/bbl (+2.8%) following Saudi Arabia's precautionary shutdown of its East-West pipeline after recent attacks and postponement of Iran-Gulf talks on Strait of Hormuz shipping protocols, offsetting what would have been a stronger tech rally. The two-factor selloff—AI moderation fears combined with geopolitical oil supply risk—has compressed the risk asset bid while bond yields remain range-bound ahead of Wednesday's Fed decision (87% probability of 25bp hike priced in).

MacroDay TradingMomentumEquities
Equities
ZeroHedge · 2 weeks ago

FICO Crashes As Trump Housing Chief Pulte Cracks Mortgage-Score Monopoly

Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Bill Pulte announced immediate approval for all lenders to use VantageScore as a competing credit-scoring model, and signaled serious consideration of bi-merge credit reporting and structural reforms in the mortgage industry. Fair Isaac (FICO) fell as much as 21%, while Equifax and TransUnion each dropped ~11%, as the market repriced exposure to potential revenue loss and pricing pressure in mortgage credit reporting. The move directly targets FICO's 75%+ market dominance and threatens 10–35% of mortgage exposure across these three data-processing firms depending on implementation scope.

MacroBreakoutMomentum
Equities
ZeroHedge · 3 weeks ago

PayPal Crashes After Advent, Stripe Abandon $50 Billion Takeover Bid

PayPal shares plunged as much as 16% in premarket trading after a consortium led by Advent International and Stripe abandoned its $50 billion takeover bid. PayPal had reportedly rejected the offer, wagering the buyers would return with a higher price, but instead the group walked away entirely. The stock had rallied roughly 30% since the takeover interest became public in mid-July, so the deal's collapse threatens to erase most of those gains and leaves PayPal trading at 2018 levels despite an ongoing turnaround effort.

Risk & PsychologyBreakoutMomentum
Equities
ZeroHedge · 3 weeks ago

Futures Jump After Nvidia's Unprecedented 2028 Guidance Stuns Markets

Nvidia beat Q2 earnings and delivered a striking 70% revenue growth forecast for fiscal 2028, well ahead of consensus (~45%), citing continued strong AI demand tempered only by physical bottlenecks in memory and power—not demand shortage. The guidance sparked a 7.4% premarket surge in NVDA and a 1.1% jump in Nasdaq futures, with broad semiconductor and software strength (Salesforce +10%, CrowdStrike +9%) offsetting weakness in most Mag7 names outside NVDA and Tesla. S&P futures rose 0.5%, but breadth remains narrow; retail flow data show a shift from ETFs to single stocks, concentrated in NVDA and AI-related names, while bond yields edged 1–2bp higher and the dollar held flat ahead of today's macro calendar and Fed speakers.

MacroIndicesMomentum
Equities
Dow Jones — Markets · 3 weeks ago

Nvidia’s Blowout Quarter and Upbeat Outlook Send Shares Higher

Nvidia delivered record revenue of $96.2 billion with an upbeat forward guidance, citing accelerating demand for AI chips. The earnings result and positive outlook reassured market participants worried about a potential slowdown in AI capex cycles. This is a significant positive print for a mega-cap heavyweight that influences both the Nasdaq and broader 'Magnificent Seven' narrative.

MacroIndicesMomentum
Equities
ZeroHedge · 3 weeks ago

Nvidia Rises After Solid Earnings, Reversing Margin Concerns As Company Guides To 70% 2028 Revenue Growth

Nvidia reported Q2 revenue of $96.2B (beat $92.4B estimate) and EPS of $2.22 (beat $2.09), but initially fell 3% on gross margin guidance of 73.5–74.5% versus 75% consensus and doubled supply commitments to $279B. The stock reversed sharply higher (+5% AH) after management guided to 70% revenue growth in FY2028—well above 40–50% whispers—and cited demand acceleration across hyperscalers. Key concerns: nearly half revenue comes from hyperscalers dependent on external financing, DSO spiked to 60 days from 45, and China remains a black hole. This marks the sixth of seven consecutive quarters NVDA has sold off despite massive beats, raising questions about valuation reset and execution risk on Vera Rubin ramp.

MacroMomentum
Equities
Investing.com · 3 weeks ago

Nvidia quarterly revenue more than doubles, guidance beats; stock down after hours

Nvidia delivered exceptional earnings with quarterly revenue more than doubling and forward guidance beating consensus expectations. Despite fundamentally strong results, the stock declined in after-hours trading, suggesting investors either priced in the beat or are taking profits after a significant run-up into earnings—a classic setup where good news fails to drive immediate continuation.

IndicesMomentum
Equities
CoinDesk · 3 weeks ago

Nvidia shares rise after earnings top estimates, guides to $108 billion in revenue next quarter

Nvidia reported better-than-expected fiscal Q2 results and issued a forward revenue guide of $108 billion for Q3, significantly above consensus and driven by sustained AI infrastructure demand. The beat and bullish guide triggered a move higher in the stock after hours, reinforcing the narrative of the company's dominance in GPU supply for large language models. For traders, this sets up a potential continuation into the next session and adds weight to the tech/AI mega-cap rally that's been underpinning broad market strength.

IndicesMomentum
Equities
ZeroHedge · 4 weeks ago

Nvidia Informs Hyperscalers About Incoming Price Hikes As Memory Costs Soar

Nvidia is implementing a ~15% price increase on Vera Rubin and Grace Blackwell processors for hyperscaler customers in 2025, driven by rising memory chip costs. Despite 75% gross margins, the company is unwilling to absorb input inflation, shifting costs to major customers (Microsoft, Google, Oracle) already committing hundreds of billions to AI CapEx. The move signals tightening supply, margin pressure downstream, and inflationary headwinds for both the semiconductor PPI and broader US inflation metrics.

MacroMomentumCommodities
Macro
ZeroHedge · 4 weeks ago

Futures Slide Ahead Of "Pivotal Week" With Nvidia Earnings. Warsh Speech On Deck

US equity futures opened lower with S&P 500 futures down 0.2% and Nasdaq futures off 0.4%, dragged by semiconductor weakness (SK Hynix, memory stocks down 3%+) and global tech selloff. Bond yields retreated 2-4bps after Treasury announced potential buyback operations using the General Account; oil fell 1.5% to $93/bbl after a six-day rally. The week pivots on three macro events: Nvidia earnings Wednesday (options pricing 4.6% move), Fed Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole speech Friday, and PCE inflation data Wednesday. Separately, US-Canada trade talks collapsed Friday, triggering 50% US tariffs on $20bn Canadian goods and matching Canadian retaliatory tariffs effective September 8. Geopolitical risk remains elevated with Treasury Secretary Bessent announcing expanded Iran sanctions today.

IndicesForexCommoditiesEquities
Equities
ZeroHedge · last month

Walmart Crashes Most Since 2022 After Huge Comp Store Sales Miss

Walmart reported Q2 comp store sales growth of just 2.6% (excluding fuel)—far below consensus and the slowest in six years—driven primarily by pharmacy deflation headwinds from federal drug price negotiations. While adjusted EPS beat at $0.81 versus $0.74 estimate and revenue exceeded expectations at $187.94B, forward guidance for Q3 and FY27 missed consensus, signaling slower growth ahead despite Sam's Club strength and 23% eCommerce growth. The stock fell as much as 9%, its worst day since July 2022, as the market punished deceleration in the world's largest retailer amid signs of weakening consumer sentiment and a slowing US economy.

Risk & PsychologyMacroMomentum
Macro
ForexLive · last month

Canada, US race against midnight tariff deadline as talks continue

Canada and the US are negotiating through midnight on new 50% tariffs covering $20 billion in Canadian imports, with auto tariffs the focal point (potential cut from 25% to 15%). Even the reduced rate would strain auto manufacturers with historical 6% profit margins, and since ~50% of Canadian-built vehicle value originates in the US, tariffs hurt both countries. A deal signals relief for CAD/USD, materials, and auto supply chains; failure triggers retaliation and USMCA uncertainty.

ForexCommoditiesEquities
Macro
ZeroHedge · last month

"Strain Is Spreading": FT Exposes Private Credit Distress At Decade Highs

Private credit distress has accelerated sharply, with non-accrual loans at the 20 largest BDCs reaching 2.8% in Q2—levels last seen in 2017—and Fitch reporting record defaults in July. The pain is concentrated in 2020–21 vintage deals made at zero rates; higher borrowing costs have squeezed cash-flow coverage for borrowers, forcing writedowns at KKR, Blackstone, and Ares on marquee names like Medallia and Cornerstone OnDemand. Major BDC share prices have fallen 14–15% over the past year, with some funds gated on redemptions and industry titans now signaling a defensive posture as the credit cycle firms.

Risk & PsychologyLiquidityEquities
Macro
ZeroHedge · last month

WSJ Catches Up, Discovers AI's Off-Balance Sheet Liabilities Are $3 Trillion And Growing $1.2 Trillion Per Quarter

Major tech companies (Google, Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, Oracle, Nvidia, etc.) have committed to ~$3 trillion in AI infrastructure spending hidden off their balance sheets through special-purpose vehicles, uncommenced leases, and long-term purchase agreements—roughly triple their reported capex and growing at $1.2 trillion per quarter. The accounting is legal but masks severe timing mismatches: capex is being committed ahead of revenue and free cash flow to support it, with depreciation expenses still deferred; when those hit, cumulative depreciation could exceed $520 billion over three years and push margins sharply lower unless sales accelerate proportionally. The concentration risk is acute—a handful of large, long-duration contracts and supplier relationships (especially with Nvidia) create cascading counterparty exposure, and if Chinese open-weight models erode token prices and hyperscaler profitability, companies with negative free cash flow will struggle to service obligations they cannot cancel.

Risk & PsychologyDataEquities
Macro
ZeroHedge · last month

Key Events This Week: FOMC Minutes, PMIs, Industrial Data; WalMart And Home Depot Earnings

Bond markets face pressure this week from the July FOMC minutes (Wednesday), flash August PMIs (Friday), and a potentially expensive 20yr Treasury auction, with the 2s10s curve having steepened 20bps since late July. Core PCE inflation remains sticky at +3.2% YoY despite recent tame CPI/PPI prints, and the Fed's three July dissenters signaled hike readiness if inflation doesn't improve. Key equity earnings from Walmart, Home Depot, and Target will gauge US consumer health, while China's weak domestic demand and flat YTD equity performance contrast sharply with US and European gains.

IndicesDataForexEquities
Macro
ForexLive · last month

US stocks hit records (again...), but oil and earnings risks are growing. What can you trade?

US stocks reached record highs following softer-than-expected July PPI data, which reduced Fed rate-hike probability from 55% to 33-35% for September and supported growth stocks. However, two emerging risks threaten continuity: Brent crude trading near $87 with a critical $90 breakout level that could reignite inflation concerns, and a defensive shift in earnings reactions where large-cap disappointments (like Applied Materials' 5% decline despite 25% revenue growth) are outweighing smaller winners in breadth. The article emphasizes this is an emerging defensive bias rather than a confirmed bearish regime, requiring traders to shift from broad index/AI buying to more selective stock-picking based on post-earnings price acceptance.

IndicesCommoditiesEquities
Equities
ZeroHedge · last month

Datadog Crashes Most On Record As 2Q Gross Margin Disappoints Despite Forecast Boost

Datadog reported Q2 revenue of $1.12B (+36% YoY, beat estimates), adjusted EPS of 65¢ (+41% YoY, beat 60¢ consensus), and raised full-year EPS and revenue guidance above consensus. However, gross margin contracted to 80% from 81% YoY—missing the 80.7% estimate—and the stock crashed as much as 23% in premarket, the worst single-day decline since its 2019 IPO. The sharp selloff despite operational beats suggests investor repricing of stretched valuations rather than fundamental deterioration, highlighting the "sell the news" dynamic in a market already in a cautious mood.

MacroMomentum
Commodities
ZeroHedge · last month

Middle East War Triggers New Global Refining Boom

Supply disruptions from Iran-related conflict and Russian diesel export bans have created a sharp divergence: crude supply is less constrained than refined product supply (gasoline, diesel, jet fuel), pushing refining margins to multi-year records. Shell, TotalEnergies, ExxonMobil, and Chevron all reported Q2 2026 earnings well above 2022 levels, with refining divisions driving outsized profits; Shell's refining margin jumped to $24/barrel from $17, while TotalEnergies' European refining margin nearly tripled year-to-date. Executives expect the tight product markets and elevated margins to persist into Q3 and beyond, supported by depleted global inventories and restocking demand.

MacroMomentumEquities
Indices
ZeroHedge · 2 months ago

Futures Hit New Record High On Strong Earnings Following Historic Call Buying Frenzy

S&P 500 futures reached a fresh all-time high near 7800 (+0.4%) as markets digested a combination of upbeat earnings (Palantir +29%, Arista +12%), semiconductor strength (+6.55% Philadelphia Semiconductor Index), and a rally in risk sentiment tied to declining oil prices and potential US-Iran Strait of Hormuz deal. Nasdaq futures (+0.2%) underperformed as AMD guidance disappointed and SpaceX's heavy AI capex spending weighed on sentiment. Treasury yields moved lower alongside falling energy prices, with 1yr inflation swaps hitting their lowest point in 2024, while Asia rallied hard (Nikkei +3.3%, Kospi +4.3%) on tech strength and improved geopolitical backdrop.

MacroMomentumEquities
Equities
ZeroHedge · 2 months ago

"Momentum Continues": Lilly Jumps After Raising Revenue Outlook On Surging GLP-1 Demand

Eli Lilly beat Q2 expectations across the board: adjusted EPS of $8.38 vs. $6.31 YoY, revenue of $22.97B (+48% YoY) vs. $20.59B consensus, with Mounjaro hitting $9.94B and Zepbound $4.93B. The company raised full-year revenue guidance to $85–87B (midpoint above consensus) and signaled continued momentum from GLP-1 drugs plus new product pipelines, driving a 6% premarket jump. For traders, this is a real earnings beat with raised guidance in a high-conviction secular growth story; the magnitude of upside suggests either analyst estimates were stale or demand is genuinely accelerating faster than modeled.

MacroMomentum