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Momentum

Momentum and relative-strength plays

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Macro
ForexLive · 6 hours ago

Australia household spending beats, up 0.8% in June (expected +0.2%, prior +1.3%)

Australian household spending rose 0.8% in June to A$81.3 billion, vastly exceeding the 0.2% consensus forecast and following a 1.2% May gain. The beat was driven by discretionary categories—hospitality, recreation, household goods, and EV purchases—suggesting genuine consumer confidence rather than price-driven necessity spending. With inflation elevated and the labour market holding up, this data strengthens the case for the RBA to extend its tightening cycle, likely supporting AUD strength and upward pressure on rate expectations.

ForexRisk & PsychologyMomentum
Macro
ForexLive · 18 hours ago

US ISM Manufacturing PMI for July 55.6 versus 54.0 estimate

July ISM Manufacturing PMI expanded to 55.6 from 53.3, the strongest in over four years and above the 54.0 consensus, driven by broad-based gains in production (58.5), new orders (56.7), and employment (52.8 vs. 49.7). The report signals manufacturing momentum is accelerating with rising backlogs and low customer inventories suggesting near-term demand strength, though elevated prices paid (71.1) and supply-chain bottlenecks signal persistent inflationary pressure and potential hawkish implications for Fed policy.

IndicesMomentumData
Commodities
Investing.com — Overview · yesterday

Oil Dips 7% as Trump Calls Off a Planned Attack on Iran

Oil prices dropped sharply on news that Trump called off a planned attack on Iran, reducing geopolitical risk premium that had supported crude. The move signals a de-escalation in Middle East tensions, which had been a key driver of recent oil strength. Traders are now repricing the tail risk of conflict out of the market, likely shifting focus back to supply/demand fundamentals and macro growth concerns.

MacroMomentum
Equities
Investing.com — Stock Market · 3 days ago

Apple set to lose nearly $500 billion in value after weak forecast

Apple issued a disappointing forward guidance that triggered a significant selloff, erasing approximately $500 billion in market capitalization. The move reflects either a material miss on revenue/margin expectations or weak demand signals that recalibrate investor sentiment on the mega-cap tech name. This is a key liquidity event for index futures (Nasdaq exposure) and a potential inflection point for growth/tech rotation.

IndicesMomentumMacro
Indices
ZeroHedge · 4 days ago

Futures Rise After Record Rip In Kospi; Bond Bounce Fades As Oil Jumps, BoJ On Hold

US tech futures extend gains on strong earnings: Amazon's AWS revenue jumped 37% YoY (vs. 31.3% consensus), driving AMZN +12% premarket, while Apple fell 7% on weaker sales guidance citing supply shortages. The Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 1.2% with S&P 500 futures +0.5% as 86% of reported S&P 500 companies beat estimates—the highest 5-year pace. South Korea's Kospi surged a record 18% overnight on SK Hynix strength. Separately, the BoJ held rates at 1% as expected; the yen spiked on suspected coordinated intervention (JPY/USD briefly touched 158.34) before paring back. Oil prices recovered after Iran tanker blockade headlines; bond gains faded. China's manufacturing PMI unexpectedly fell into contraction.

EquitiesMacroMomentum
Commodities
ZeroHedge · 4 days ago

Wheat Prices March Higher As Intensifying Black Sea Fighting Fuels Food Security Fears

Wheat futures rose as much as 3.9% on Thursday following intensified Russian strikes on Ukrainian Black Sea ports, with three cargo ships hit in recent days. The UN has flagged the escalation as a serious risk to global food security, warning that further supply disruptions could drive up freight, insurance, and food costs—particularly for import-dependent developing nations. The Bloomberg Agriculture Spot Index has already climbed to a three-year high, signaling that geopolitical risk is pricing into the broader agricultural complex.

MacroMomentum
Macro
ForexLive · 4 days ago

Euro area inflation nudges up in July, keeps the pressure on the ECB

Eurozone inflation surprised to the upside in July, with both headline CPI (+2.9%) and core CPI (+2.5%) beating expectations. The concern isn't energy alone—services inflation accelerated to 3.3% and monthly rates show broad-based pressure. Market pricing has shifted: September rate-hike odds moved from 64% to 66%, and traders are now pricing ~38 bps of total hikes by year-end with another ~52 bps before mid-2027. This data keeps the ECB under pressure despite hopes for a summer pause.

ForexIndicesMomentum
Macro
CNBC — Markets · 4 days ago

China's factory activity unexpectedly contracts in July on demand slump, typhoons

China's official manufacturing PMI fell unexpectedly to 49.2 in July from 50.3 in June, breaking a four-month expansion streak and marking the weakest reading since February. The contraction was driven by a sharp collapse in new orders (48.5, the lowest in 38 months) and weakening exports as the front-loading surge ahead of U.S. tariffs unwound, compounded by typhoon disruptions. The broad weakness across construction, services, and composite indices signals domestic demand stress, pressuring Beijing to accelerate fiscal stimulus; however, firms' forward expectations remain resilient, suggesting they anticipate policy support to stabilize growth in H2.

IndicesCommoditiesMomentum
Macro
ForexLive · 5 days ago

US Q2 advance GDP +1.5% vs +2.1% expected

The advance Q2 GDP report showed real growth of 1.5%, significantly below the 2.1% forecast, marking a deceleration from Q1's 2.1%. Consumer spending surged 3.2% (vs 0.1% prior) and private final sales jumped to 3.9%, but government spending fell and exports decelerated, creating the shortfall. The inflation picture was mixed: core PCE cooled modestly to 3.4% Q/Q (vs 3.5% prior), but headline PCE accelerated to 5.1% (vs 4.6% prior) and the GDP deflator jumped to 6.3% (vs 3.9% expected), signaling persistent price pressures despite the growth miss.

IndicesMomentumRisk & Psychology