The Teaser Period: Why The AI Boom Is Hitting A Reset Wall
This deep-dive analysis argues that the AI boom is not a technology cycle but a credit-driven real-estate-like cycle built on take-or-pay compute contracts with deferred payment structures. OpenAI and other frontier labs have signed ~$2.3 trillion in capacity commitments that don't bill until 2027–2028, creating a predictable "reset wall" analogous to the 2007 ARM reset schedule. The author shows that by commencement, even under optimistic revenue scenarios, OpenAI's compute costs will exceed 200% of revenue before operating expenses—forcing dependence on ongoing capital raises rather than cash flow. The structure is economically equivalent to debt but remains off-balance sheets, masking true leverage across hyperscalers, neoclouds, and passive index funds holding concentrated AI exposure.
