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US June PCE inflation 3.7% vs 3.7%% expected. Core 3.3% vs 3.3% expected

June PCE inflation meets expectations at 3.7% headline, 3.3% core; both show significant cooling from prior month.

· Source: investinglive.com

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Summary

June PCE data came in exactly in line with consensus—headline 3.7% YoY (down from 4.1%) and core 3.3% YoY (down from 3.4%)—but the month-over-month prints reveal a sharper disinflationary pulse: core MoM at 0.1% vs 0.2% expected, and services ex-energy at 0.1% vs 0.5% prior. The Fed remains focused on the 2% target, which the article suggests could take 6–8 months to approach if inflation stays tame, but with energy prices as the wild card—any creep in oil could derail the disinflation trajectory and complicate rate-cut timing.

HomeUS June PCE inflation 3.7% vs 3.7%% expected.

Core 3.3% vs 3.3% expectedUS June PCE inflation 3.

7% vs 3.7%% expected. Core 3.

3% vs 3.3% expectedNewsGreg Michalowski30/07/2026 | 12:50 GMTThe June 2026 PCE dataPrior PCE 4.1%.

Core prior 3.4%Headline PCE YoY for June 3.7% vs 3.

7% estCore PCE YoY for June 3.3% vs 3.3% estHeadline MoM -0.

1% vs -0.1% est. Last 0.

5% (revised up from 0.4%)Core MoM 0.1% vs 0.

2% est. Last 0.3%PCE Ex food and energy 0.

1% vs 0.3% last monthPCE Services Price excluding Energy and housing 0.1% vs 0.

5 Last monthThe Fed Chair Warsh said the 2% target is the PCE the Fed is still looking at and the statement said that "Inflation remains elevated relative to the Committee's 2 percent goal, in part reflecting supply shocks that have driven price increases in certain sectors, including energy. The Committee will deliver price stability.".

That 2 % is not going to be reached for some time. The Core YoY is at 3.3%.

It is the lower than headline at 3.7%. Looking at the last 12 montth, MoM it seems like it might be 6, 7, 8 months before we start to get closer to 2% assuming that inflation remains tame (0.

1% MoM) over that time period.It is possible, but oil prices would need to come down and stay down. Otherwise, the risk is that oil prices start to cause a creep higher vs a creep lower.

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