investingLive European news wrap: The calm before the storm?NewsGiuseppe Dellamotta11/09/2026 | 11:40 GMT, published 11/09/2026 at 11:40 AMTagsSession wrapAdd as a preferredsource on GoogleSummaryMarket news from the European morning session - 11 September 2026Headlines:Gold falls back into the major $4300 support ahead of US CPI, as surging oil prices increase rate hike betsYemen's Iran-backed Houthis have completed the takeover of Bab el-Mandeb StraitBitcoin trades at a major support ahead of the US CPI report. What to watch next?
What is the distribution of forecasts for the US CPI?Iran gains stronger leverage as oil surges above $100, forcing urgent diplomatic solutionsTrading Went Around the Clock. Can Settlement Keep Up?
UK July monthly GDP +0.4% vs 0.0% m/m expectedFX option expiries for 11 September 10am New York cutWhat are the main events for today?
Markets:WTI crude oil down -3.46% to $98.93Gold up +0.
45% to $4335EUR/USD down -0.15% to 1.1592USD/JPY down -0.
29% to 153.97S&P 500 up +0.50% to 7636.
75Bitcoin up +0.32% to $76,770It's been a quiet session with limited data and news releases ahead of the US CPI release. The only economic report was the UK GDP which showed a growth of 0.
4% m/m in July beating expectations for 0.0% growth and marking the strongest annual growth rate since February 2025. The upside was driven mainly by the services sector, particularly computer programming and R&D, although the broader outlook remains clouded by higher energy costs, elevated borrowing costs and geopolitical uncertainty.
On the geopolitics side, the oil prices surging above $100 have increased pressure for a diplomatic solution to the Iran conflict, giving Tehran greater leverage as disruptions in the Middle East tighten global energy supplies. The key event to watch is Monday’s GCC meeting where Gulf states are expected to discuss with Iran the reopening of the strait.Moreover, the AFP reported that the Houthis completed their takeover of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, giving them control over the other critical chokepoint for global shipping and energy flows.
With both routes basically controlled by Iran, the importance of a quick diplomatic resolution got stronger. Despite this backdrop, we've seen oil prices falling by more than 3% in the morning and US equities erasing most of yesterday's losses. It might be just daily noise, profit-taking or expectations for a surprising breakthrough over the weekend.
In the American session, all eyes will be on the US CPI report. The headline CPI Y/Y is expected at 3.4% vs 3.
4% prior, while the M/M measure is seen at 0.4% vs 0.1% prior.
The Core CPI Y/Y is expected at 2.4% vs 2.5% prior, while the M/M reading is seen at 0.
2% vs 0.2% prior.The Core M/M measure will be the one to watch, as that's what the Fed members have been focusing on.
Fed's Waller recently said that he would consider a rate hike in September if the monthly core reading surprises to the upside. Unfortunately, that was before the latest surge in oil prices, with WTI crude now trading above the $100 level.The break of that psychological level triggered a hawkish repricing across the board, with traders now pricing in a 67% chance of a rate hike at the upcoming meeting.
I feel like an in-line CPI won't be enough to steer the market away from expecting a rate hike. If we go into the FOMC meeting with higher probabilities for a rate hike, then the Fed will be forced to hike just to avoid delivering a dovish surprise.ADVERTISEMENT - CONTINUE READING BELOWAdvertisementAdvertisementMust ReadAdam Button on Gold, Market Noise and Risk | What Traders Need to Know Before Q4Why risk management in trading matters if you want to stay in the gameGold breaks key support, slides below $4,230 as danger zone gives wayEuro area economic sentiment slips in September as inflation expectations riseIran expects US response today on Hormuz proposal as oil prices climb againS&P 500 technical analysis as week ended less than 1% lower than ATH just shy of 7850French stock market says 'au revoir'How to trade gold today as the gold futures market is very close to Friday's closeIran accuses Washington of sending secret peace proposals while talking tough in publicChart of the day: Treasury yields push to multi-decade highs despite fading Fed hike betsReports that Hormuz crude flows near 76% of prewar levels.
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