Consumer outlook plunges in September as inflation outlook worsens

University of Michigan consumer sentiment crashes to 47.8 in September, second-lowest on record, as inflation

· Source: cnbc.com

Summary

The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index plunged 7.5% month-over-month to 47.8 in September—the second-lowest reading since 1952—driven by surging energy prices and trade tensions that have pushed one-year inflation expectations to 4.6%. Both the current conditions and expectations sub-indices deteriorated sharply, with year-ahead outlooks for personal finances and business conditions posting significant declines. This data comes alongside a 3.4% annual CPI print, sparking market conviction in a Fed rate hike with odds now above 85% for next week's decision.

Key PointsThe University of Michigan's Survey of Consumers showed a 47.8 reading in September, down 7.5% from a month ago to the second-lowest level on record.

One-year inflation expectations jumped to 4.6% amid a surge in energy prices.Beef products are offered for sale at a grocery store on Sept.

10, 2026 in Chicago, Illinois. Scott Olson | Getty ImagesConsumer sentiment plunged in September amid heightened inflation fears, hitting its second-lowest level on record in the University of Michigan's monthly survey released Friday.The survey's headline index hit a level of 47.

8, down 7.5% from the August reading and off 13.2% from a year ago.

This was the second-lowest reading on record for data going back to 1952 — the bottom coming in May as rising prices also jolted the outlook."Year-ahead expectations for both personal finances and business conditions plunged," Joanne Hsu, survey director, said. "With a resurgence in fuel prices and trade tensions, consumers anticipate greater pressures on their pocketbooks to come.

"Indeed, the one-year inflation outlook surged to 4.6%, up 0.6 percentage point from the prior level and the highest since hitting the same level in June.

The current conditions index in the survey fell 1.9% from the prior month, while the expectations measure tumbled 11.1%.

Bureau of Labor Statistics data also out Friday showed gasoline prices rose 3.9% in August and were up 27.4% from a year ago.

Fuel oil prices soared 10.1% and were up 52% annually.Traders now see a Federal Reserve rate hike next week as a near certainty, with odds rising past 85% Friday after the BLS released its consumer price index showing inflation at 3.

4% annually, far above the central bank's 2% target.Choose CNBC as your preferred source on Google and never miss a moment from the most trusted name in business news.

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