HomeUS July CPI 3.4% y/y vs 3.4% expectedUS July CPI 3.
4% y/y vs 3.4% expectedNewsAdam Button12 hours agoUS inflation data for July 2026CPIPrior was 3.5%Unrounded +3.
365%CPI m/m +0.1% vs +0.1% expPrior CPI was -0.
4%Unrounded CPI m/m +0.074% vs -0.422% priorCore readings:Core y/y 2.
5% vs 2.5% expected -- lowest since FebPrior core was 2.6%Core m/m +0.
2% vs +0.2% expectedPrior m/m +0.0%Unrounded +0.
215% m/m vs -0.017% prior Core-CPI services ex-Rent/OER (supercore) was +0.189% m/m vs.
-0.203% priorCore-CPI services ex-shelter +0.355% m/m vs.
-0.089% priorCore goods +0.2% m/m vs -0.
086% m/m priorAhead of the report, the market was pricing in a 44% chance of a rate hike in September and 24.4 bps in hikes this year. USD/JPY was trading at 159.
04 ahead of the report.Afterwards, the hike odds are at 39% for September. The US dollar is broadly lower in the aftermath to 158.
92. The bigger dollar moves are elsewhere but limited to 15-20 pips against the majors. Gold hit a sessoin high afterwards, up $55 to $4422.
Key sub-components:Owners' equivalent rent: +0.3% vs +0.24% priorRent of primary residence: +0.
3% vs +0.15% priorMotor vehicle insurance: -0.3% vs -2.
0% priorAirfares: +2.2% vs +0.2% priorUsed cars: +0.
4% vs -0.2% priorApparel: +0.1% vs -0.
6% priorMedical care: +0.4% vs -0.1% priorLodging away from home: -2.
8% vs -2.3% priorEnergy m/m: -1.5% vs -5.
7% priorGasoline m/m: -2.9% vs -9.7% priorFood m/m: +0.
1% vs +0.2% priorOverall, this report certainly gives cover for the Fed to hold again in September but we still have another inflation report before the decision, and a standstill that continues in Hormuz. Stock markets have cheered the move so far and S&P 500 futures are up 0.
45%. US 2-year yields are down 3.6 bps to 4.
18%.ADVERTISEMENT - CONTINUE READING BELOWText SizeTagsUSDAdd as a preferredsource on GoogleMost PopularJapan July PPI surges 7.2%, but lower than the expected 7.
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