US August CPI 3.4% vs 3.4% expectedNewsAdam Button11/09/2026 | 12:30 GMT, published 11/09/2026 at 12:30 PMTagsUSDAdd as a preferredsource on GoogleSummaryHighlights of the August US consumer price index report from the Bureau of Labor StatisticsUS CPIPrior was 3.
4%Unrounded +3.397% vs +3.365% priorCPI m/m +0.
4% vs +0.4% expPrior CPI was +0.1%Unrounded CPI m/m +0.
396% vs +0.074% priorCore readings:Core y/y 2.4% vs 2.
4% expectedPrior core was 2.5%Core unrounded +2.446% y/yCore m/m +0.
3% vs +0.2% expectedPrior m/m +0.2%Unrounded +0.
318% m/m vs +0.215% priorCore goods +0.11% m/m vs +0.
2% priorReal weekly earnings +0.2% vs 0.0% prior (revised to +0.
1%)Supercore +0.511% m/m vs +0.189% prior -- highest since JanSupercore +3.
022% y/y vs +2.843%Ahead of the report, the market was pricing in a 68% chance of a rate hike in September and 43.7 bps in hikes this year.
USD/JPY was trading at 154.01 ahead of the report. The intial market reaction was buying the US dollar on the slight beat on core m/m.
After the report, the market is pricing in an 82% chance of a hike next week.Key sub-components:Owners' equivalent rent: +0.2% vs +0.
3% prior Rent of primary residence: +0.2% vs +0.3% prior Motor vehicle insurance: -0.
8% vs -0.3% prior Airfares: +2.7% vs +2.
2% prior Used cars: +0.4% vs +0.4% prior Apparel: 0.
0% vs +0.1% prior Medical care: -0.2% vs +0.
4% prior Lodging away from home: +2.4% vs -2.8% prior Energy m/m: +2.
1% vs -1.5% prior Gasoline m/m: +3.9% vs -2.
9% prior Food m/m: +0.1% vs +0.1% priorNew vehicles +0.
3%, the largest since Dec 2024A strange one is wireless telephone services, which were up 5.9% m/m. That's the largest increase on record.
Gasoline alone accounted for 0.140pp of the 0.4% headline, but that's no surprise.
The way we're going, that will be a significantly bigger number for September.In terms of drags, motor vehicle insurance was -5.1% y/y, which is the lowest since Nov 2020 and health insurace was -8.
5% y/y.Update: In terms of market reaction, we're seeing a reversal of the initial USD rally and a pickup in risk assets. That's a counter-intuitive move as Fed funds futures continue to price in a more-hawkish path.
The market is likely reacting to reports that Gulf countries are considering a plan that would let Iran and Oman control shipping through Hormuz, in a possible path to peace. That has oil prices down by $3.21 per barrel.
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