Preview: August non-farm payrolls by the numbersNewsAdam Button03/09/2026 | 17:52 GMT, published 03/09/2026 at 05:52 PMTagsUSDAdd as a preferredsource on GoogleSummaryData indications ahead of Friday's non-farm payrolls report and a strong seasonal bentnonfarm payrolls USA jobsWhat's expected:Consensus estimate +56K (range -25K to +121K)July -23KJune +63KPrivate consensus estimate +45KUnemployment rate consensus estimate: 4.1% vs 4.1% priorParticipation rate consensus 61.
4% priorPrior underemployment U6 prior 7.9%Avg hourly earnings y/y exp +3.0% y/y vs +3.
2% priorAvg hourly earnings m/m exp +0.3% vs +0.1% priorAvg weekly hours exp 34.
3 vs 34.3 priorAugust jobs so far:ADP employment report +38K (lowest since Jan) vs +47K expected and +46K prior ISM services employment 47.8 vs 47.
4 priorISM manufacturing employment 51.2 vs 52.5 exp and 52.
8 priorChallenger Job Cuts 52,881 vs 33,429 priorPhilly employment +27.9 vs +10.0 priorEmpire employment +9.
3 vs +11.4 priorInitial jobless claims survey week 206K vs 187K priorRevelio Labs +36.5K vs +79.
2K priorSeasonally, the headline reading is weak in August, according to BMO. It has come in below estimates 71% of the time and beating 29% of the time, by 71k and 18k, respectively, on average. Similarly, 36% of previous unemployment prints for August have been higher-than-expected, 28% have been lower-than-estimates, and 36% have matched the consensus.
August can be a tricky month for seasonal adjustments because of school start times so market participants will generally try to filter out educational jobs and look through them.The trend has been weakening in jobs lately and last week's initial benchmark revisions unexpectedly shaved jobs through March.Still, unemployment is running at just 4.
1% and it's hard to see it as anything but the oft-discussed 'low hire/low fire' economy.In terms of trading, a soft report is the hint from these numbers and that would place further pressure on the US dollar, which is already weak after surprisingly-dovish comments from Fed Governor Chris Waller on Thursday. USD/JPY has also been hit by intervention (though not confirmed) and plunged 330 pips on the day, leaving a turbulent dynamic for FX traders through the report.
In contrast, equities were a more-straightfoward response to Waller and are also benefitting from new AI model releases that are showing another leap forward. A softer jobs report would lift them further while a hot reading could spoil the party.Notably though, Waller himself downplayed the report “I don't expect that the employment data will deviate much from what we have been seeing.
So my decision on the appropriate stance of policy will be heavily influenced by what we learn about August inflation," he said.A clear spot to look for clues is the front end of the bond curve with US 2-year yields trading at 4.33%.
For the moment, the market is just under 50/50 for a September rate hike.ADVERTISEMENT - CONTINUE READING BELOWAdvertisementAdvertisementMust ReadAdam Button on Gold, Market Noise and Risk | What Traders Need to Know Before Q4Why risk management in trading matters if you want to stay in the gameEuropean stock market open: Relief bounce lifts stocks, but higher bond yields keep the pressure onUSD/INR continues to follow oil prices in lockstep as focus shifts to US-Iran negotiations. What's next?
This Nasdaq 100 technical analysis slightly favors the bears for todayGold breaks key support, slides below $4,230 as danger zone gives wayGoldman: US diesel export ban would cut US prices about 4%, lift European cost (d'uh)Gold futures technical analysis and an important trade management for lifeGold selloff pauses as US-Iran talks revive deal hopes. What to watch next?Silver remains at risk of further downside as US-Iran talks take centre stageEuro area economic sentiment slips in September as inflation expectations riseIran expects US response today on Hormuz proposal as oil prices climb againS&P 500 technical analysis as week ended less than 1% lower than ATH just shy of 7850French stock market says 'au revoir'How to trade gold today as the gold futures market is very close to Friday's closeIran accuses Washington of sending secret peace proposals while talking tough in publicADVERTISEMENT - CONTINUE READING BELOWAdvertisementBest in 2026SponsoredGeneral Risk WarninginvestingLive is a market news and analysis platform that lists and reviews forex brokers for informational use only.
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