investingLive Americas market news wrap: Waller tamps down rate hike bets

Fed's Waller signals no rate hike yet, citing need for CPI data; Sept hike odds drop to 50/50.

· Source: investinglive.com

Summary

Fed Governor Waller stated he's not ready to hike rates and will await upcoming CPI data before deciding, effectively signaling the FOMC's caution on tightening. Markets repriced September rate-hike odds to 50/50, triggering a broad rally: S&P 500 +1.05%, 10-year yields down 2 bps to 4.77%, gold +$86 to $4,472, and a sharp JPY rally (USD/JPY down to 155.30) likely on suspected Japanese intervention. The session also saw ISM non-manufacturing PMI beat (55.4 vs 54.2) and jobless claims in line (206K), keeping inflation data as the key catalyst for near-term direction.

investingLive Americas market news wrap: Waller tamps down rate hike betsNewsAdam Button03/09/2026 | 21:37 GMT, published 03/09/2026 at 09:37 PMTagsSession wrapWrap North AmericaAdd as a preferredsource on GoogleSummaryBig market moves as Waller indicates that he's not ready to hike ratesDeutsche Bank: The dollar is now leveraged to the AI raceVance: We're not talking to Iran unless they stop shooting at shipsPreview: August non-farm payrolls by the numbersISM non manufacturing PMI for August 55.4 versus 54.2 estimate.

Stronger than expectationsFeds Waller: Finally seeing some signs of disinflation in recent data. How are the markets reacting?US trade deficit widens sharply in July as AI-related imports surgeUS Initial Jobless claims 206K vs 205K estimateBOE Pill: Sees the need to raise the bank rate to 4.

00%. GBPUSD moves higher on the news.Markets:Gold up $86 to $4472US 10-year yields down 2 bps to 4.

77%WTI crude oil up $0.66 to $91.87S&P 500 up 1.

05%JPY leads, USD lagsThursday was all about Waller as the influential Fed Governor indicated that he wasn't ready to hike rates yet and would need to see CPI data before making a decision. The market is taking that as a signal of where the core of the FOMC stands and it's dropped the odds of a Sept hike to 50/50.Waller downplayed the employment report but said a surprise could influence his view.

Mostly, he's focused on what upcoming inflation data looks like and that ensures that this month's CPI data will be a major market event.The other surprise was a jump in the yen, with intervention obviously eyed. It was a steady slide lower in USD/JPY from early in the day and took it from 159.

00 to as low as 155.30, where some buyers have bid it up 50 pips. This is an interesting one to keep an eye on as we haven't gotten the usual intervention confirmation and it wasn't exactly in a straight line.

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