A four standard deviation beat for non-farm payrolls this morning (full details here) (good news) is triggering ugly reactions (bad news) across markets with rate-hike odds for September ripping back up near recent highs (despite no signs of inflationary wage growth - in fact it is slowing)...
'Good News Is Bad News': Big Jobs Beats Sends Rate-HIKE Odds Soaring; Here's What Wall Street Thinks...
Strong NFP beat pushes September rate-hike odds higher, but inflation data next week remains the key driver for Fed
· Source: zerohedge.com
Summary
A four standard deviation beat in non-farm payrolls sparked an immediate hawkish repricing, with September rate-hike odds spiking despite slowing wage growth and no inflation pressure from labor itself. Markets sold equities (0.5–1.25% implied drop per JPMorgan), pushed the dollar higher, and extended the yield curve on expectations of tighter policy. However, consensus from major strategists suggests the NFP beat is secondary to next week's CPI print; most see the labor market as already priced in and inflation as the real swing factor for the Fed's September 16 decision.
Counting Ticks summarises and links to reporting from third-party publishers. The full article and its copyright remain with zerohedge.com.
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